Predicting the Future

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future". That great quote is attributed to Niels Bohr, the father of atomic physics, who it can be said knew a thing or two about uncertainty. At a rather more practical level, designing a new process can also present uncertainties and it's those uncertainties that can cause problems further down the track.

However, there is a useful method, named a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), to help you unearth them and propose countermeasures in advance, using foresight rather than hindsight. There are many different templates on-line but they all essentially focus on the identification, risk assessment, prioritisation and mitigation of potential failures.

An FMEA is typically used for mission critical operations, where a failure can have severe consequences. A good example can be found in the current pandemic, where the potential for contagion of the virus needs to be meticulously identified and assessed to minimise recurring outbreaks.

However, it can be equally useful for less critical processes where the mere action of drilling into detail can help to identify potential failure points, not unlike root cause analysis. So give it a try on your new process, even if the future of the world doesn't depend on it. You may be surprised at what you can fix before it ever happens.